Though preferred by Apple, HTML5 will have a minor impact on the apps ecosystem, according to new data from Strategy Analytics (http://www.strategyanalytics.com). I'm not sure I buy it, but the research group says the feature-rich superiority of native apps and the risk HTML5’s open standards creates for existing revenue streams will confine HTML5 to niche status.

Instead, Strategy Analytics predicts that a third type of application, the hybrid, will exhibit strong growth. Already services -- such as PhoneGap, Sencha, Brightcove and Marmalade -- are allowing developers to combine an HTML5 core with native APIs [application programming interfaces] to leverage the best of native and open standards.

"HTML5 is not the future of apps," says Josh Martin, director of Apps Research at Strategy Analytics. "While developers dream of 'write once run everywhere' the fragmented support for and limited APIs within HTML5 make this impossible. In fact, we predict the hybrid app is the future. Existing business models are protected, differentiation among and within ecosystems remains intact, and consumption continues unabated. The end result is the continued dominance of iOS, Android, and increasingly Windows Phone.”

-- Dennis Sellers